BUF68.7CPR
atMIN56.4CPR
BUF edge · 12.3 points
Unit matchup: MIN 1.6
TEAM PERFORMANCE
Forward-looking strength, with the inputs behind each score.
| #1 | JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 86.0 | 84.1 | 89.4 | 85.3 | 100.0 | 39.7 |
| #2 | SFSan Francisco 49ers | 79.4 | 71.8 | 93.5 | 68.7 | 96.8 | 28.1 |
| #3 | KCKansas City Chiefs | 76.8 | 67.9 | 80.5 | 79.7 | 93.5 | 34.6 |
| #4 | LALos Angeles Rams | 73.4 | 63.0 | 63.2 | 89.2 | 83.9 | 68.1 |
| #5 | CINCincinnati Bengals | 71.5 | 62.0 | 80.0 | 38.7 | 90.3 | 43.9 |
| #6 | BUFBuffalo Bills | 68.7 | 64.5 | 92.6 | 28.5 | 80.6 | 31.3 |
| #7 | CHIChicago Bears | 68.4 | 65.3 | 68.5 | 64.8 | 77.4 | 48.6 |
| #8 | TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | 62.7 | 61.5 | 26.6 | 90.2 | 74.2 | 64.4 |
| #9 | GBGreen Bay Packers | 62.3 | 53.2 | 54.5 | 72.7 | 87.1 | 21.2 |
| #10 | HOUHouston Texans | 61.5 | 58.2 | 64.2 | 54.8 | 61.3 | 75.2 |
| #11 | SEASeattle Seahawks | 61.3 | 61.3 | 34.2 | 87.6 | 71.0 | 62.2 |
| #12 | NENew England Patriots | 57.5 | 52.2 | 69.2 | 39.7 | 58.1 | 68.1 |
| #13 | MINMinnesota Vikings | 56.4 | 61.2 | 21.3 | 94.2 | 67.7 | 21.4 |
| #14 | CARCarolina Panthers | 53.6 | 50.9 | 60.0 | 43.9 | 51.6 | 71.2 |
| #15 | PITPittsburgh Steelers | 53.0 | 56.3 | 45.6 | 72.3 | 54.8 | 34.0 |
| #16 | DETDetroit Lions | 49.7 | 52.6 | 73.4 | 26.8 | 48.4 | 32.4 |
| #17 | DALDallas Cowboys | 49.0 | 44.5 | 73.4 | 14.7 | 41.9 | 73.4 |
| #18 | DENDenver Broncos | 47.6 | 46.6 | 32.9 | 53.9 | 64.5 | 8.3 |
| #19 | NYGNew York Giants | 47.3 | 55.3 | 40.6 | 68.2 | 45.2 | 27.5 |
| #20 | NYJNew York Jets | 42.6 | 44.9 | 54.4 | 32.6 | 32.3 | 71.1 |
| #21 | BALBaltimore Ravens | 41.1 | 43.1 | 48.2 | 40.8 | 35.5 | 40.2 |
| #22 | ATLAtlanta Falcons | 39.9 | 36.5 | 43.4 | 44.0 | 38.7 | 50.2 |
| #23 | CLECleveland Browns | 36.6 | 48.2 | 31.0 | 57.9 | 29.0 | 25.3 |
| #24 | WASWashington Commanders | 34.7 | 38.8 | 39.7 | 38.1 | 25.8 | 48.8 |
| #25 | LVLas Vegas Raiders | 31.7 | 36.7 | 50.2 | 12.9 | 19.4 | 41.4 |
| #26 | NONew Orleans Saints | 31.3 | 32.8 | 34.2 | 26.0 | 16.1 | 67.5 |
| #27 | INDIndianapolis Colts | 31.1 | 40.7 | 27.7 | 32.6 | 9.7 | 69.8 |
| #28 | ARIArizona Cardinals | 31.1 | 36.4 | 38.9 | 38.4 | 22.6 | 32.3 |
| #29 | TENTennessee Titans | 26.1 | 30.3 | 27.7 | 18.1 | 6.5 | 82.7 |
| #30 | MIAMiami Dolphins | 23.9 | 19.5 | 28.4 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 67.9 |
| #31 | PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 22.0 | 32.8 | 9.7 | 28.2 | 0.0 | 69.4 |
| #32 | LACLos Angeles Chargers | 21.0 | 27.2 | 2.9 | 43.1 | 3.2 | 71.6 |
Week 9 · CPR and unit-level advantages
BUF edge · 12.3 points
Unit matchup: MIN 1.6
Built from performance in the selected season
Offense receives a 1.5× emphasis relative to defense because offensive efficiency is more predictive.
Net EPA is adjusted iteratively for opponent strength, with the adjustment gaining influence as schedules grow.
Expected wins, one-score results, fumble recovery balance, and qualified turnover-worthy-play margin identify unsustainable results.
Availability remains neutral when a reliable team-level injury input is not published. Turnover-worthy-play coverage qualifies for the regression layer.